Podium Prophets
Back to Blog
Race WeekendsMarch 13, 2026·7 min read

2026 Australian GP Practice Summary — FP1, FP2 & FP3

Complete practice breakdown from Albert Park — session-by-session results, FP2 long-run analysis, team pace evolution across Friday and Saturday, and what the data predicted for qualifying and race day.

Three practice sessions at Albert Park, three very different stories. Ferrari ran the show on Friday. By Saturday morning, Mercedes had taken over completely. How did the narrative flip so fast? Let's break down every session and see what the data actually told us heading into qualifying and race day.

Circuit Profile

Albert Park Circuit

Melbourne, Australia

laps5.278 km per lap
Resurfaced semi-permanent5 Straight Mode zones (no DRS)Long pit lane

Circuit Demands

Downforce
6.0
High-Speed Corners
6.5
Straight-Line Speed
6.0
Tyre Degradation
5.0
Braking
5.5
Overtaking Difficulty
5.0

FP1: Ferrari Looking Ominous

Free Practice 1 — Best Lap Times

PosDriverBest LapGapStatus
1LEC1:20.267LEADERFIN
2HAM1:20.736+0.469FIN
3VER1:20.789+0.522FIN
4HAD1:21.087+0.820FIN
5LIN1:21.313+1.046FIN
6PIA1:21.342+1.075FIN
7RUS1:21.371+1.104FIN
8ANT1:21.376+1.109FIN
9BOR1:21.696+1.429FIN
10HUL1:21.969+1.702FIN

So what actually happened in FP1?

  • Ferrari locked out the top two. Leclerc topped the session comfortably, with Hamilton half a second behind in P2. The SF-26 looked immediately planted through Albert Park's fast sequences.
  • Red Bull looked quick too. Verstappen P3, Hadjar P4, both cars running competitive programs. Verstappen's median long-run pace on mediums (1:22.307) was actually the fastest FP1 long run of any driver.
  • Where were Mercedes? Russell and Antonelli buried down in P7-P8, a full second off the pace. But here's the thing about FP1 at Albert Park: the track evolves dramatically from Friday to Saturday. It's notoriously unrepresentative.
  • Norris in P19. Not even close to representative. McLaren often sandbagged FP1 in 2025, and the pattern continued here.

FP2: The Long Runs Tell the Real Story

Free Practice 2 — Best Lap Times

PosDriverBest LapGapStatus
1PIA1:19.729LEADERFIN
2ANT1:19.943+0.214FIN
3RUS1:20.049+0.320FIN
4HAM1:20.050+0.321FIN
5LEC1:20.291+0.562FIN
6VER1:20.366+0.637FIN
7NOR1:20.794+1.065FIN
8LIN1:20.922+1.193FIN
9HAD1:20.941+1.212FIN
10OCO1:21.179+1.450FIN

Piastri topped the single-lap times, but that's not what matters in FP2. This is the session where teams load up fuel and run long stints. If you want to predict race pace, this is where you look.

FP2 Long-Run Analysis

FP2 Long-Run Stint Pace

HardMediumSoftInterWet
1:21.01:21.91:22.81:23.81:24.7RUSRUS L1 (H): 1:23.9RUS L2 (H): 1:23.7RUS L3 (H): 1:23.5RUS L4 (H): 1:23.5RUS L5 (H): 1:23.4RUS L6 (H): 1:23.4RUS L7 (H): 1:23.5RUS L8 (H): 1:23.5RUS L9 (H): 1:23.6RUS L10 (H): 1:23.5RUS L11 (H): 1:23.6ANTANT L1 (H): 1:24.4ANT L2 (H): 1:24.2ANT L3 (H): 1:24.1ANT L4 (H): 1:24.0ANT L5 (H): 1:24.0ANT L6 (H): 1:24.1ANT L7 (H): 1:24.1ANT L8 (H): 1:24.0ANT L9 (H): 1:24.1ANT L10 (H): 1:24.1ANT L11 (H): 1:24.2ANT L12 (H): 1:24.1ANT L13 (H): 1:24.2HAMHAM L1 (H): 1:21.4HAM L2 (H): 1:21.2HAM L3 (H): 1:21.1HAM L4 (H): 1:21.0HAM L5 (H): 1:21.1HAM L6 (H): 1:21.2HAM L7 (H): 1:21.1HAM L8 (H): 1:21.1HAM L9 (H): 1:21.2HAM L10 (H): 1:21.1HAM L11 (H): 1:21.2HAM L12 (H): 1:24.5HAM L13 (H): 1:24.4HAM L14 (H): 1:24.4HAM L15 (H): 1:24.5HAM L16 (H): 1:24.4NORNOR L1 (S): 1:24.0NOR L2 (S): 1:23.8NOR L3 (S): 1:23.5NOR L4 (S): 1:23.3NOR L5 (S): 1:23.2NOR L6 (S): 1:23.3NOR L7 (S): 1:23.5NOR L8 (S): 1:23.7NOR L9 (S): 1:23.8NOR L10 (S): 1:23.9NOR L11 (S): 1:24.0HADHAD L1 (M): 1:22.6HAD L2 (M): 1:22.0HAD L3 (M): 1:21.8HAD L4 (M): 1:21.5HAD L5 (M): 1:21.4HAD L6 (M): 1:21.8HAD L7 (M): 1:24.7HAD L8 (M): 1:24.6HAD L9 (M): 1:24.6HAD L10 (M): 1:24.6HAD L11 (M): 1:24.6HAD L12 (M): 1:24.6HAD L13 (M): 1:24.6HAD L14 (M): 1:24.7HAD L15 (M): 1:24.7Lap Time (s)

What the long runs actually revealed:

  • Hamilton's first stint looked sensational on paper. His opening hard run clocked a median pace of 1:21.129, seemingly the fastest of the session. The catch? He was almost certainly running lighter fuel than everyone else's initial stints, which makes a direct comparison misleading.

  • Russell's consistency was the real story. Over an 11-lap hard stint, he posted a median of 1:23.507 with degradation of just -0.020s/lap. That's essentially flat. Near-zero degradation on hard tyres is one of the strongest race-pace signals you can find.

  • Norris chose softs for his long run. An unusual choice, and it makes apples-to-apples comparison tricky. His median of 1:23.495 on softs suggests McLaren's hard-tyre pace would be slower, which is exactly what played out on Sunday.

  • Hadjar's mediums told two stories. A strong early stint (1:21.702 median) gave way to a more representative later stint (1:24.617). That first number was likely flattered by fuel burn-off as the car got lighter.


FP3: Everything Changes

Free Practice 3 — Best Lap Times

PosDriverBest LapGapStatus
1RUS1:19.053LEADERFIN
2HAM1:19.669+0.616FIN
3LEC1:19.827+0.774FIN
4PIA1:20.087+1.034FIN
5HAD1:20.137+1.084FIN
6VER1:20.197+1.144FIN
7ANT1:20.324+1.271FIN
8NOR1:20.443+1.390FIN
9BOR1:20.459+1.406FIN
10BEA1:20.778+1.725FIN

Remember that Mercedes car that looked lost in FP1? P7, a full second off the pace?

Russell put down a 1:19.053. Six tenths clear of everyone. The W17 went from looking ordinary to looking like the fastest car on the grid by a significant margin. Something clicked in the overnight setup work, and this was the first real warning sign of what was coming in qualifying.

The one question mark was Antonelli in P7. Was he holding back, or had Russell found something his teammate hadn't quite unlocked? Qualifying answered that pretty conclusively when Antonelli slotted into P2, just 0.293 off Russell's pole time.


Team Pace Evolution Across the Weekend

FP3 Qualifying Simulation Pace — Gap to Fastest

Mercedes
Leader
REF
Ferrari
+0.616s
McLaren
+1.034s
Red Bull
+1.084s
Audi
+1.406s
Haas
+1.725s
Racing Bulls
+1.785s
Alpine
+2.018s
Williams
+2.611s
Aston Martin
+3.667s
Cadillac
+4.461s

Watch how the order shifted session by session:

TeamFP1FP2FP3Qualifying
MercedesP7P2P1P1
FerrariP1P4P2P4
Red BullP3P6P5P3*
McLarenP6P1P4P5
Racing BullsP5P8P11P8
AudiP9P12P9P10

*Red Bull qualifying best via Hadjar only (Verstappen incident in Q1)

The trend jumps off the page: Mercedes gained over 2 seconds relative to the field from Friday to Saturday. Ferrari moved in the opposite direction, fastest in FP1 but sliding backward as the weekend wore on. That trajectory pointed straight at Mercedes having the better qualifying setup, and it was confirmed spectacularly when Russell took pole by 0.785 seconds.


What Practice Predicted Correctly (and Where It Missed)

Nailed It

  • Mercedes qualifying dominance. FP3 had Russell 0.6s clear. In qualifying, he was 0.8s clear. The direction was spot-on.
  • Ferrari as best of the rest. They showed consistent P2-P4 pace across all sessions. Qualified P4-P7, raced to P3-P4.
  • Audi in the lower midfield. Bortoleto hovered around P9-P10 all weekend. He finished the race in P9.
  • Cadillac bringing up the rear. Perez and Bottas were the slowest pairing in every single session.

Didn't See That Coming

  • Piastri topped FP2 on single-lap pace. He didn't even finish the race. Single-lap FP2 times might be the least useful metric in all of practice.
  • Norris went from P19 in FP1 to P6 in qualifying. A perfect reminder that FP1 running programs are basically fiction for several teams.
  • Verstappen looked competitive all through practice (P3 FP1, P6 FP2, P6 FP3). Then a qualifying incident sent him to P20. No amount of practice data can predict that.
  • FP2 long-run hierarchy vs actual race pace. The general direction was right (Mercedes and Ferrari at the top), but the absolute gaps didn't translate cleanly. Practice long runs with variable fuel loads remain an imperfect race-pace predictor. They're a compass, not a GPS.

Takeaways for Predicting Round 2

  1. Mercedes are the team to beat. Their qualifying and race pace at Albert Park was real. Expect them at the sharp end next round too.
  2. Ferrari's race pace is better than their grid slots suggest. They had the fastest race median but qualified P4-P7. For your race predictions, bump them up from where they qualify.
  3. Red Bull's car has speed, but questions linger. Verstappen's fastest lap (1:22.091) was quicker than anyone else's, but Hadjar's DNF and Verstappen's qualifying crash raise reliability concerns.
  4. McLaren need to find race pace. Piastri's FP2-topping single-lap speed didn't carry over. Norris finished P5 but was 51 seconds behind the winner. Higher degradation is their biggest weakness right now.
  5. FP3 remains your best qualifying crystal ball. Russell's FP3 dominance translated directly to pole. Always weight FP3 qualifying simulations most heavily.

Practice told us Mercedes would be strong and Ferrari would have race pace. It didn't warn us about first-lap chaos or Verstappen's qualifying disaster, but no data can predict those things. Use practice to set your baseline, then adjust for the unknowns.

Ready to put these insights to work? Start predicting the next round on Podium Prophets.

T

Tebe

Solo developer and F1 fan behind Podium Prophets. Built this to replace our group's prediction spreadsheet — now it's open to everyone.

Ready to Predict?

Put your F1 knowledge to the test. Automatic scoring, private leagues, and built-in session analysis.

Start Predicting